On the 1-hour time frame, after executing the Ryan Soldier strategy and collecting sell-side liquidity, the price has entered a consolidation phase. Although there was potential for entry into Buy positions within this range, this scenario is against the dominant market trend and is not recommended. Therefore, the primary focus remains on Sell trades.
Key Points:
- The GBP/USD pair, following a stop hunt, enters a consolidation phase within a channel featuring a bearish structure;
- On the 4-hour time frame, a move toward the channel high at 1.3537$ and the collection of buy-side liquidity may trigger entry into the Order Block zone; observing weakness and a market structure shift in this area strengthens the sell scenario targeting Sell Side Liquidity;
- A break below the channel low at 1.3458$ and a pullback to the Order Block or FVG can provide an opportunity to continue selling in line with the dominant trend;
- On the 1-hour time frame, after collecting sell-side liquidity, the market is in a compression phase; a return to the range high and a sweep of buy-side liquidity can create a sell setup with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
In today’s analysis of the GBP/USD pair, the price, after a stop hunt, has moved into a consolidation phase within a clearly defined channel range.
The overall market structure still shows a bearish bias, with the formation of lower highs and lower lows. However, price reaction to liquidity zones and the Order Block can activate specific trading scenarios.
Alongside this structure, reviewing lower time frames and the US Dollar Index also plays a key role in determining the market’s next direction.
Daily GBP/USD Analysis on the 4-Hour Time Frame (H4)
On the 4-hour time frame, if price moves toward the channel high and collects Buy Side Liquidity, it is expected to enter the Order Block zone. If signs of bullish weakness and a market structure shift are observed in this area, one may look for entry into a Sell position.
The alternative scenario becomes active if the channel low at 1.3458$ is broken to the downside. In this case, after a Pullback to the Order Block zone or Fair Value Gap, re-entry into Sell positions can be considered.
Daily GBP/USD Analysis on the 1-Hour Time Frame (H1)
If price moves upward again, collects buy-side liquidity, and returns to the range zone, this opportunity can be used to enter Sell trades with the following targets:
- Sell-side liquidity target;
- Risk to reward of 1 to 1 or higher.
If price remains within the channel and enters the Order Block zone or Fair Value Gap, entering Sell trades with a stop placed behind the Order Block candle would be logical.
Daily GBP/USD Analysis on the 15-Minute Time Frame (M15)
On the 15-minute time frame, using the ICT Kill Zone indicator, trading sessions and Kill Zone areas have been identified.
Using the Divergence indicator as well as the Multiple Relative Strength Index indicator, a bearish divergence in the RSI has been identified.
This bearish divergence can serve as confirmation of a potential short-term downward move. However, the alternative scenario indicates that after a pullback or liquidity collection, price may also move upward again and target higher levels.
Conclusion
The overall structure of the GBP/USD market remains bearish, and as long as the 1.3582$ level is not broken and sustained above, the dominant scenario remains selling.
The channel high areas and Order Block zones are considered the most important short-term decision points.
Additionally, the bearish divergence on lower time frames will play a decisive role in determining the market’s next direction.
